What is a Random Walk model?

A random walk is the simplest example of a non-stationary process. A random walk has no specified mean or variance, strong dependence over time, and its changes or increments are white noise. Simulating random walk in R:

arima.sim(model=list(order=c(0,1,0)),n=40)->rw ts.plot(rw)

A Random Walk model is a mathematical model used in statistics and finance to describe a time series where the values are determined by random steps or movements. In the context of R, which is a programming language and environment for statistical computing and graphics, you can simulate a random walk using the following basic steps:

Set an initial value for your time series.
Generate random steps or increments at each time point.
Update the time series values based on the random steps.
Here’s a simple example in R code to create a random walk:
# Set seed for reproducibility
set.seed(123)

# Number of time points
n <- 100

# Generate random steps (e.g., using normal distribution)
steps <- rnorm(n)

# Create a random walk time series
random_walk <- cumsum(steps)

# Plot the random walk
plot(random_walk, type = “l”, main = “Random Walk”, xlab = “Time”, ylab = “Value”)
This code generates a random walk with 100 time points using random steps drawn from a normal distribution. The cumsum function is used to accumulate the steps and create the random walk. The resulting plot will show the random and unpredictable nature of the time series.