Prior probability is nothing but, the proportion of dependent (binary) variable in the data set. It is the closest guess you can make about a class, without any further information. For example: In a data set, the dependent variable is binary (1 and 0). The proportion of 1 (spam) is 70% and 0 (not spam) is 30%. Hence, we can estimate that there are 70% chances that any new email would be classified as spam.

Likelihood is the probability of classifying a given observation as 1 in presence of some other variable. For example: The probability that the word ‘FREE’ is used in previous spam message is likelihood. Marginal likelihood is, the probability that the word ‘FREE’ is used in any message.